Posts Tagged ‘economy’

Economic Jump Starts: Blame Game is OUT, Accountability is IN!

Friday, September 9th, 2011

This is our economy and it’s time for us to take charge. Agreed? Read on.

From time to time the South Florida Law Blog invites people who I respect and are friends to post a blog. I introduce you to my dear friend William McCarty, an attorney who lives in the DC area.

“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they’ve tried everything else.”

Winston Churchill.

After three years of record low interest rates and $2.5 trillion dollars of deficit spending we still are no closer to jump starting a self sustaining recovery. Job creation is very weak, housing contracts are anemic despite historically low interest rates and prices, and the stock market is erratic and indecisive because it trades off of short term news rather than long term fundamentals. Even if we don’t have a double dip recession, a 2% or lower growth rate means that unemployment is actually increasing because we’re not creating enough jobs to keep up with our population growth.

We haven’t been able to jump start a self sustaining recovery because we cannot replace the unsustainable phantom wealth of rapid home equity appreciation, quick stock market gains and easy credit with the unsustainable phantom wealth of printed money.

So now we have to face facts:
1. Adjusted for inflation, individual income has been flat for the past ten years and real buying has actually gone down
2. In the near and long term, either taxes will go up or services will go down or both
3. Health care and college costs continue to increase twice as fast as our income
4. Collectively we’ve lost 20% of our personal wealth in the past three years
5. Thirty-five (35%) percent of home mortgages are underwater with thousands more going under every day
6. Foreclosures will continue to deflate the housing market and consequently consumer spending.

U.S. consumer spending accounts for seventy (70%) percent of our economic activity which the Washington Post reported on August 28, 2011 “Consumer fears put economy on the brink”, is in serious need of a confidence boost. In the past week the Post has also reported our government and the IMF are finally advocating a refinance program that would allow homeowners to refinance their mortgage balance to a lower rate without regard to loan to value ratios and hopefully with no PMI. (We already guarantee the mortgages!)

A family refinancing the average mortgage amount of $220,000 from 7% down to 5% would put an extra $350.00 per month ($4,200.00 per year) in the household budget every year for up to 30 years. Multiply this by one-half of the mortgages and you have 30 million families spread out over the entire country with real sustained monthly stimulus that does not add a dime to the deficit. This program would also reduce future foreclosures because reduced monthly mortgage expenses would rival or be less than paying rent.

This is our economy and it’s time for us to take charge. If you want to take control of your financial future, let your elected representative know you support the efforts to allow families to refinance to lower rates and at the same time tell them that the blame game is over, bipartisanship and accountability are in and we need to invest in ourselves, quickly.

Florida Real Estate’s Mortal Enemy: Excess Inventories

Wednesday, June 1st, 2011

Florida Real Estate’s Mortal Enemy: Excess InventoriesWhat is killing Florida real estate? Excess inventories and falling home prices.

House prices have been continuously falling for the first time in 70 years, and South Florida homeowners should expect the trend to continue.

A surplus inventory of houses caused by Florida foreclosures and short sales is the mortal enemy of home prices.  Lower prices are needed to sell off excess inventories of residential properties, and in turn lower prices encourage more inventories from anxious sellers.

So how big are excess inventories and how long will it take for the real estate market to absorb them?

According to Economic Consultant Gary Shilling, we are currently facing a surplus of up to 2.5 million excess house inventories in the United States, a number that is subject to rise with further foreclosures and falling home prices.

To forecast the length of time to work off this excess inventory and have the market return to more favorable inventory and price conditions, Shilling developed projections of supply and demand for residential units.

Household formation averaged about 900,000 per year over the past decade as measured by the Census Bureau.  Shilling uses this number as a reasonable estimate of yearly housing demand.  However, with many college students moving back with their parents after graduation, household formation is not happening as fast as it once did.

New construction of single family homes and apartment units is running about 700,000 per year, and about 300,000 U.S. homes are torn down, converted or removed from housing stock each year.  Based on these numbers, Shilling calculates new housing supply to be about 400,000.

So if demand is averaging 900,000 per year, while new housing supply is averaging 400,000, about 500,000 of the excess housing inventory will be absorbed per year.  This means it will take 4 or 5 years for the market to absorb the 2 million to 2.5 million excess inventories that Shilling believes exist at a minimum.

So what does this mean for South Florida homeowners?

  • First, there is no quick fix to this mess.  No amount of federal mandates can make up for the enormous excess inventory of houses in this country.
  • Second, homeowners should not be surprised if home prices continue to fall.  In fact, estimates still show that prices could fall at least another 20% to return to their long-run trends.
  • Finally, the market will eventually correct itself.  Inevitably, supply and demand will even out.  As this happens, prices stabilize and in turn can begin to rise again.

Everyone wants to know if the end of the real estate crisis is coming soon. Based on these numbers, we still have a way to go. Whichever end of the real estate crisis you are on, the Offices of Oppenheim Law and Weston Title are here to help.

From The Trenches,
Roy Oppenheim

The Heat is On! Miami Real Estate Ranked #1 City to Buy

Saturday, May 28th, 2011

Florida real estate finally makes the #1 list for something positive.

With the real estate market in recovery mode, owning a home is more affordable than renting in 72 percent of major U.S. cities. Miami, Las Vegas and Arlington, Texas round out the top three cities where buying is a safer bet.

Renting is more affordable than buying in only eight percent of America’s largest cities, including New York City, Seattle, and Kansas City.  The Offices of Weston Title and Oppenheim Law continue to help homeowners navigate through the waters (and under waters) of Florida real estate buying, selling and investing.

Roy Oppenheim on Miami Real Estate: Ranked best place to buy

Another One Bites the Dust…A Salute to Neil Barofsky

Tuesday, April 5th, 2011

Neil BarofskyThe government official who recently left office over the housing crisis is someone who actually fought for the people instead of laying the groundwork for a cushy job awaiting him in the private sector. Neil Barofsky, the Special Inspector General for TARP resigned his post effective Wednesday, March 30.  On his way out the door, he was still publicly arguing with the Treasury over the legacy of the $700 billion dollar Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”).

Glenn Greenwald of Salon.com called Barofsky “easily one of the most impressive and courageous political officials in Washington” for his willingness to stand up to some of the most powerful people, institutions, and special interest lobbies in Washington and Wall Street.

On March 29, before his departure from office, he wrote a piece for the New York Times titled “Where the Bailout Went Wrong.” The piece, so vicious in its criticisms of the TARP program and politicians in Washington,  prompted the Wall Street Journal to run excerpts from it along with their own commentary on the TARP fiasco.

Of the failed bailout Barofsky wrote:
“Two and a half years ago, Congress passed the legislation that bailed out the country’s banks. The government has declared its mission accomplished, calling the program remarkably effective ‘by any objective measure.’  On my last day as the special inspector general of the bailout program, I regret to say that I strongly disagree . . . Almost immediately [after passage], as permitted by the broad language of the act, Treasury’s plan for TARP shifted from the purchase of mortgages [that would have helped everyday homeowners] to the infusion of hundreds of billions of dollars into the nation’s largest financial institutions, a shift that came with the express promise that it would restore lending.”

Free money to banks, “free for all” (except homeowners)
The Treasury, however, provided the money to banks with no effective policy or effort to compel the extension of credit. There were no strings attached: no requirement or even incentive to increase lending to home buyers, and against our strong recommendation, not even a request that banks report how they used TARP funds.

Barofsky concluded with the following:
“[The] Treasury’s mismanagement of TARP and its disregard for TARP’s Main Street goals – whether born of incompetence, timidity in the face of a crisis or a mindset too closely aligned with the banks it was supposed to rein in – may have so damaged the credibility of the government as a whole that future policy makers may be politically unable to take the necessary steps to save the system the next time a crisis arises. This avoidable political reality might just be TARP’s most lasting, and unfortunate, legacy.”

Crash, burn, what next?
These failings of the Treasury have also resulted in larger banks that control a larger portion of our economy. This asks the question, why should the banks do anything different the next time around? In exchange for almost crashing the entire world economy, they come out larger, richer, and virtually guaranteed of future bailouts if governments want to avoid economic depression. Indeed, according to Barofsky, credit rating agencies are now taking into account the likelihood of future bailouts when determining the financial health of a company.

We salute Neil Barofsky and wish a great public servant the very best.

From The Trenches
Roy Oppenheim

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