Posts Tagged ‘holc’

The Tipping Point: Rebirth of HOLC?

Wednesday, March 11th, 2009

As the economy continues to worsen and confidence generally erodes as reflected in part by the Dow Jones Index dropping 25 percent since the beginning of 2009, the question arises: is there indeed a magic bullet to turn the world economy around?

Some have suggested that Wall Street’s exportation of toxic mortgage-backed securities to investors throughout the world was “evil genius” if in fact it was a plan to create the equivalent of a Trojan horse by destroying the rest of the world’s economy. Of course, the problem with that theory is that we took our own economy down in the process. In order to undo the damage and pain that we have inflicted, America needs to unwind or rewind the process. It is hard to envision how to do that unless we dust off our history books and look at what FDR did in a similar situation.

During the depression housing prices had dropped 30 percent. 50 percent of all homeowners were in default and a vast majority of homes were underwater, meaning that there was no equity or negative equity in such homes. This situation is similar to ours now, where rational homeowners have no incentive to keep paying their mortgages. In fact, right now in Florida, a whopping 20 percent of all mortgages are at least 30 days behind, which means that the foreclosure rate will likely double. Our government has to realize that eventually, a tipping point will occur. Even the homeowners, who may be under water but are still paying their mortgages, have to ask why they are the only chumps on the block still paying. When we get to that point in our social and economic fabric it may get so torn that it will be difficult for us to re-stitch it.
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Mortgage Forbearance on the Horizon: Obama Following His Gut and Major Banks Follow

Friday, February 13th, 2009

It appears that the financial markets are taking their cues from the President as opposed to the Treasury Secretary. This week we saw the major equity markets tumble as the Treasury’s half-baked Bailout II Plan was partially unveiled. But most importantly, the markets started to respond– first yesterday- after the President began to dust off the history books and talked about some kind of mortgage forbearance program and an allocation of $50-$100 billion from the Bailout. Today, interestingly enough, Citi Bank and JP Morgan Chase agreed to follow suit and hold off on filing new foreclosures for three weeks until the President announces his new program.

So what can we expect in such a program? If we let history be our guide, during the Depression the government guaranteed a number of home loans that were under water through the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC). Its purpose was to refinance homes to prevent foreclosure. The HOLC granted long-term mortgages to over a million people facing the loss of their homes. HOLC was only applicable to owner occupied homes and additionally assisted mortgage lenders by refinancing problematic loans and increasing the institutions liquidity. When the HOLC ended its operations and liquidated assets in 1951, HOLC turned a small profit. Over a period of 12 years or so, the government recouped about 80% of the money they guaranteed.

So how will the Obama administration implement such a program? Here are my thoughts–in brief.

Today I would run the program as follows:

  1. Owner occupied homes only.
  2. (more…)


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